!!! - I SAY IMMENDIATELY- I DO NOT ACCEPT DIVINATION REQUESTs HERE - !!!
This journal is my experiment that should reveal if divination can be useful to predict course of stock market prices. Some peoples try wealth magic, and I will try something that can be called wealth divination.
On start I must tell- this is as I said an experiment, so I will not make any real stock trades based on this- I don’t know what results there will be, and I don’t recommend to follow those predictions to make real trades.
To make it more valuabe I will make some assumptions:
- I will make reading with only one rune, and will try to predict price change of US S&P 500 index (up, down, or side)
- Prediction will be make once a week for the close price on end of the week, and once a month for month close price.
- I made some statistics for weekend close prices for last 20 years to have a picture how prices was shaped, and these are results:
Maximum price change was 12,1% up and -18,2% down.
Mean change was 0,09% (mean was calculated for all weekend changes) and standard deviation (STD) was 2,48%.
Range of change values for 1st STD was:
from 2,58% to -2,40%. Price changes in that range were 79,25 % of all price changes.
Range of change for 2nd STD was:
from 5,08% to -4,89%, Those were 16,16% of all observations.
3rd STD: from 7,57% to -7,38% and those were 3,15% of all.
I will not include here changes above or below range of 3rd STD because they were only 1,43% of all.
Upward price changes accounted 56% of all. There was only one week with 0,00% change.
Because prices on stock market can go upward, downward or go in side trend i will assume that side trend is for changes from -0,53% to 0,72%, this range is assumed from a quarter of standard deviation. For this range we have 28,49% of all observations, so if we include that in earlier calculations we have 50,76% observations for 1st STD
After all this statistic hell we have specific experiment rules. Congratulations if you read it all
!!! - I SAY IMMENDIATELY- I DO NOT ACCEPT DIVINATION REQUESTS HERE - !!!